The Singapore-based ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has reduced its 2025 growth forecast for Cambodia’s economy. It is now predicting that it will grow by just over 5% in 2025 — still the third-highest growth rate in ASEAN, after Vietnam and the Philippines. In 2026, Cambodia’s growth is projected at 4.7%.
AMRO’s report, published on July 23, reduced the growth figure from the 5.8% it tipped in April.
For 2026, growth is now expected to be 4.7%, down from an earlier projection of 6%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is expected to remain stable at 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026.
In the ASEAN region, AMRO forecasts that Vietnam will lead with the highest growth — 7% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026 — while the Philippines is expected to achieve 5.6% growth in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026.
AMRO explained that the downward revision reflects global economic uncertainties, particularly due to new challenges stemming from the US tariff policies announced by President Donald Trump in April.
The report also showed that the ASEAN+3 region (ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea) is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.
The US tariff hikes, which are set to take effect on August 1, are expected to reduce US demand, heighten investment uncertainty and lower consumer confidence.
According to AMRO, the effects of the tariffs are expected to intensify in 2026, especially for regional economies facing high US tariffs and those heavily reliant on external demand.
AMRO also forecasts that inflation in the region will remain low — around 1% in both 2025 and 2026 — due to moderate global commodity prices and weakening demand-side pressure.
Lor Vichet, vice-president of the Cambodia-China Commerce Association, told The Post on July 25 that the forecast is not unusual, as Cambodia’s post-Covid economic growth has consistently ranged between 5% and 6%. He added that Cambodia’s continued solid growth is largely thanks to access to large export markets such as the US, the EU, Canada, Japan and Vietnam.
“Cambodia must further diversify its export destinations, especially to new markets such as the UK and the Middle East, particularly with countries which Cambodia has signed free trade agreements with,” he added.
Cambodia has recently signed several such agreements, most notably the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes 15 member countries.
AMRO is expected to release its next regional economic update in October.
