A brief US Navy port call is certainly a welcome development that will contribute to US-Cambodian relations; however, it is unlikely to have much impact on the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute for the principal reason that this conflict is driven more by internal Thai politics and debate over the future of Thailand and its relations with its neighbours than anything else.
The Thai government has even taken the bold public stance that it is not concerned with the US. Thailand is largely relying upon its long history of strong relations with American, under the belief that this long history gives it some manoeuvring space to pursue aggressive nationalist ambitions even if they digress from US foreign policy interests. They are even less concerned that any warming of ties between Phnom Penh and Washington could displace Thai-US relations.
In sum, it would take an extraordinary transformation and paradigm shift in US foreign policy interests in the region to significantly change Thai nationalist ambitions from the outside in. The border conflict can be resolved however by a pragmatic and assertive new Thai administration that was willing to exercise leadership in the matter. This seems unlikely, though anything is possible.
What is more likely is the dispute will continue as a centuries-old disagreement and it will re-ignite if not in the near future, then definitely during this generation.
Youk Chhang is director of the Documentation Center of Cambodia (DC-Cam). The views and opinions expressed are his own.
